Occupancy Forecast

Oktoberfest is Friday, September 13-Sunday, September 15. Guest nights on the books for the Thursday to Sunday night period of Oktoberfest are down 18% to Oktoberfest 2023. On Sept. 2, 2023, Oktoberfest 2023 had 82% of 2023 actual guest nights on the books. Guest nights on the books for Saturday night (Sept. 14) are -14% year over year (YOY). Friday night is -19% YOY and Thursday is -30% YOY.
Looking at Labor Day weekend through the month of September, Guest nights on the books are -24% to 2023. Guest nights on the books for Friday, September 6 are -29% YOY. Saturday, Sept 7 guest nights are -35% to 2023. This will be the slowest weekend of September. Oktoberfest will be the busiest weekend in September 2024. After Oktoberfest, early midweek business levels in September are comparable to last year. The weekends are the challenge in September. The weekend of September 20 & 21 has smaller decreases in guest nights compared to 2023. Friday the 20th is -18% YOY with Saturday the 21st -11% YOY. Friday, Sept. 27 is -21% YOY before Saturday, Sept 28 rebounds to -8% YOY. Login to the web portal frequently to see how business volumes progress over the next 2 weeks. For the past 2 weeks, demand has been significantly less than last year. My  observations in the Blue River Plaza, on Main St. sidewalks and the Gondola lots the past 2 weeks tell me the empty nest market is not traveling to the levels we have seen in the past. The early nester segment feels similar.

A quick look at September 27 to October 31, 2024 (see graph above) indicates 40% of 2023 actual guest nights are on the books. Guest nights on the books in 2024 are -10% YOY. For an extended fall season, do your Second Summer dances.
Guest nights on the books for the summer season (May 1 to October 31) are currently -20% YOY.

The graph below looks at Winter 2024/25 and indicates guest nights on the books are down 15% YOY:

• November – 15% YOY
• December -14% YOY
• January -21% YOY
• February -19% YOY
• March -8% YOY (Texas spring break split over two weeks in March)
• April +9% YOY (Easter April 20, 2025)

Two periods in the winter season are concerning: the night’s following Christmas day and the month of February. The past few years have seen February rival March for nights on the books. The Christmas holiday speaks for itself.

The September 2, 2024 Key Data reports include 50 properties and 3,250 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.