Occupancy Forecast

The graph below compares two seasons of guest nights on the books for the nights of December 18, 2025, to January 4, 2026, plus last season’s actual guest nights (yellow line). During this period, guest nights on the books are +2% year over year (YOY) (+709 guest nights YOY) with 98% of historic actual guest nights on the books (OTB).

December 18 to January 4, Key Dates and Notes:

• Expect a significant number of college students Dec 12 – 22 and January 5 to 12.
• December 22: Guest nights OTB +6.5% YOY, +123 guest nights YOY
• December 27: Guest nights OTB -6.5% YOY, -135 guest nights YOY
• December 29: Guest nights OTB +4.2% YOY, +88 guest nights YOY
• December 31: Guest nights OTB -1.3% YOY, -28 guest nights YOY
• January 3: Guest nights OTB -7% YOY, -117 guest nights YOY

The graph below has 3 years of On the Books Guest Nights for Dec. 18, 2025, to January 4,2026.

Notice this year’s arrival pattern (blue line) is very similar to last year (red line) and measurably different from two years ago (yellow line). This year has 1.5% more guest nights on the books than two years ago. Last week we had 5.3% more guest nights on the books than 2YA.

January 5 to March 2, 2026, is represented below. The blue line is 2026 OTB, the red line is 2025 OTB and the yellow line is 2025 actual guest nights.

Guest nights on the books are -8.4% YOY with 62% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books currently. Notable dates:

• Saturday, January 17 (MLK Weekend): Guest nights are flat YOY
• International Snow Sculpting Championships: Jan 24 to Feb 3, 2026
• Saturday, January 24, 2026: Guest nights are -6.6% YOY, -87 guest nights YOY
• Saturday, January 31, 2026: Guest nights are +1.3% YOY, +16 guest nights YOY
• February Guest nights on the books are -15% YOY.
• Saturday, Feb. 14 has 17% fewer guest nights (-217 nights) on the books than last year.
  • Valentine’s Day and Saturday of President’s weekend

March Guest nights on the books are -11% to last year and -5% to 2 years ago (2YA). April guest nights on the books are -6% to last year and +17% to 2YA.

Guest nights on the books for the winter season are now -6% YOY and -9.9% to 2YA. Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 63% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books.

The December 21, 2025, Key Data reports include 66 properties and 3,186 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.