Occupancy Forecast

Data acquisition errors via the Key Data system have been resolved and the BTO has regained confidence in the Key Data reports. We are looking to update summer numbers in the very near future, while winter season numbers are on solid ground.

Below is a three season chart of winter season guest nights on the books as of Nov. 3 (Green column is 2024/25, the red column is 2023/24 and blue is 2022/23). This represents approximately 38% of historic actual guest nights on the books at this time. Guest nights on the books for 2024/25 are +5% to 2023/24 and +12% to 2022/23.

The daily chart below looks at guest nights on the books as of Nov 3, for the nights of Nov. 7 to Dec 19, 2024 (blue line) compared to the same dates in 2023 (red line) and 2023 actual guest nights on the books (yellow line). Approximately 52% of historic actual guest nights are on the books as of Nov. 3. Guest nights on the books are pacing -14% to last year. Notice Thanksgiving is one week later in 2024. Thanksgiving night is pacing 10% below last year. The Saturday after Thanksgiving is pacing 12% below last year.

The Christmas Holiday is pacing well early. The chart below reviews the Holiday dates of Dec 20 to Jan 12. Approximately 52% of historic actual guest nights are on the books at this time. Guest nights on the books are +9% to last year. A rare instance as Wednesday, January 1, has the most guest nights on the books over this date period.

January 13 to February 28, 2025 has 16% more guest nights on the books than last year. Breckenridge currently has 40% of historic actual guest nights on the books for this period. The red line has not yet developed the EKG peak and valley pattern of the yellow line actual nights on the books. Expect the blue line to develop more peaks and valleys during these nights.

The nights of February 28 to March 30, 2025 have 21% more guest nights on the books than the same nights one year ago. Approximately 25% of actual guest nights are on the book at this time. March 15 & 16 will be the peak spring break nights. Texas spring breaks are broken into two weeks over the nights of March 8 to 23. Easter is on April 20, 2025. Fat Tuesday is March 4, 2025.

Have you cast your ballot? The long anticipated elections are almost over. Hurricanes Helene and Milton are to blame for a low jobs report in October. The Conference Board reports Consumer Confidence rose from 99.2 to 108.7 in October. “Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved.”

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index lifted for the third consecutive month and is inching up to its highest level since April 2024. Sentiment is now more than 40% above June 2022. The Dow Jones is up 8% over the past three months. Rumor has it the Fed will drop interest rates ¼ of a point. Despite the high cost of living, consumers continue to place travel as a high priority.

The November 3, 2024 Key Data reports include 52 properties and 3,233 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.